News & Insights

The closing weeks of 2025 provided mixed signals about what 2026 may provide for businesses. According to Business Insider, inflation in the United States slowed to 2.7% year-over-year in November 2025, a significant decline from earlier in the year and below many economists' forecasts. While some of this easing may be due to data distortion from a prolonged federal government shutdown, the trend suggests that price pressures are not as unanchored as they once were. For business leaders, this means it is time to revisit pricing strategies and cost projections, but they should not assume that inflation is "solved."

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Global real GDP is projected to grow at approximately 3.1% in 2026 according to the International Monetary Fund, signaling steady but restrained expansion rather than a surge. That kind of environment rewards businesses that make intentional decisions, not those waiting for momentum to magically return.

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As 2026 approaches, forecasts are predicting that U.S. real GDP growth will slow to 1.8%–2.0% in 2026 (EY US Economic Outlook), indicating a softer momentum compared to the post-pandemic recovery. Several economic models now estimate the likelihood of a recession within the next 12 to 18 months at about 39% to 40% (Bankrate Economic Indicator Survey). Consumer spending, which is crucial for most industries, is expected to decline further in the upcoming quarters, according to some reports (EY Economic Outlook). These indicators illustrate an economy that may enter low-growth territory, resulting in uneven demand where operational discipline becomes increasingly essential.

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