News & Insights

Arizona businesses are navigating a global environment where understanding local markets is becoming as crucial as access to capital, logistics, and trade relationships. The Arizona Commerce Authority reported that Arizona's exports reached $44.4 billion in 2025, marking a 37% increase from the previous year and positioning the state as one of the fastest-growing export economies in the country. This growth highlights expanding opportunities in sectors such as semiconductors, aerospace, advanced manufacturing, and cross-border trade, but it also increases exposure to regional market differences that can impact performance when companies enter new geographies.

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IRS Criminal Investigation's FY 2024 Annual Report shows the agency uncovered more than $9.1 billion in fraud from tax and financial crimes, obtained court orders totaling $1.7 billion in restitution, and seized approximately $1.2 billion in criminal assets.

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Small businesses often struggle with financial challenges that go beyond bookkeeping, and these struggles materially impact survival and growth. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, about 20.4% of small businesses fail in their first year, and roughly 49.4% do not survive past five years. By 10 years, about 65.3% have closed, a sobering indicator of the long-term risks small businesses face.

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78% of organizations now use AI in at least one business function, a significant increase from just 20% in 2020, according to All About AI. However, this surge raises growing concerns: many companies are adopting AI out of obligation rather than a clear understanding of its potential benefits.

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According to Business Standards, major technology companies, including Amazon, Alphabet (Google's parent company), Microsoft, and Meta, are planning to collectively invest approximately $650 billion in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. This investment will cover areas such as data centers, cloud systems, custom AI chips, and networking equipment. This amount represents an estimated 60% increase from spending levels in 2025 and indicates a significant escalation from previous years as the AI "arms race" intensifies.

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Recent research from SMB Group indicates that 53% of small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) are currently using AI, with another 29% planning to adopt it within the next year. This demonstrates that AI has moved beyond the experimental phase and is now part of everyday operations.

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According to the McKinsey Global Institute, companies that have successfully integrated AI across multiple business functions are achieving 12-to-14-percentage-point increases in EBITDA margins. By 2026, AI itself will no longer be a key differentiator. The significant divide will be between organizations that have effectively operationalized AI and those still experimenting without measurable results.

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The closing weeks of 2025 provided mixed signals about what 2026 may provide for businesses. According to Business Insider, inflation in the United States slowed to 2.7% year-over-year in November 2025, a significant decline from earlier in the year and below many economists' forecasts. While some of this easing may be due to data distortion from a prolonged federal government shutdown, the trend suggests that price pressures are not as unanchored as they once were. For business leaders, this means it is time to revisit pricing strategies and cost projections, but they should not assume that inflation is "solved."

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Global real GDP is projected to grow at approximately 3.1% in 2026 according to the International Monetary Fund, signaling steady but restrained expansion rather than a surge. That kind of environment rewards businesses that make intentional decisions, not those waiting for momentum to magically return.

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As 2026 approaches, forecasts are predicting that U.S. real GDP growth will slow to 1.8%–2.0% in 2026 (EY US Economic Outlook), indicating a softer momentum compared to the post-pandemic recovery. Several economic models now estimate the likelihood of a recession within the next 12 to 18 months at about 39% to 40% (Bankrate Economic Indicator Survey). Consumer spending, which is crucial for most industries, is expected to decline further in the upcoming quarters, according to some reports (EY Economic Outlook). These indicators illustrate an economy that may enter low-growth territory, resulting in uneven demand where operational discipline becomes increasingly essential.

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